Pair #5322

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 269

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1032703

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:33Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open requires a good overall score but does not logically necessitate finishing top 10 in Round 1 specifically. A player could win a tournament without having been top 10 after round 1. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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