Pair #5321

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 70192

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1032703

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:33Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open and finishing top 20 at the Masters are separate tournaments. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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