Pair #5320

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5722

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14782

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:33Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 is a completely different tournament from the Valero Texas Open. No logical relationship exists in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -7.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -12.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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