Pair #5318

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5722

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 269

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Tour major has no logical connection to Round 1 performance at the Valero Texas Open, which is not a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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