Pair #5317

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5722

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 70192

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: low
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not necessarily mean winning the Masters — Matsuyama could win the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship instead and finish outside the top 20 at the Masters. However, if he wins the Masters specifically, he would be top 20 there. Since the major win could be any of the four, there is no necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -44.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -48.63% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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