Pair #5313

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-HMAT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2499

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 70192

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:13Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: If Matsuyama finishes top 10 in all 4 majors, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which implies top 20 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0180 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T15:21:22Z

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