Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-HMAT
Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 251
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HMAT
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4591651
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:13Z
Reasoning: These are different tournaments. Winning the Masters has no logical connection to a Round 1 finish at the Valero Texas Open.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0010
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A