Pair #5310

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 269

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4591651

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: These are different tournaments entirely. Winning the Masters has no logical bearing on Matsuyama's Round 1 performance at the Valero Texas Open, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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