Pair #5309

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4591651

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 70192

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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