Pair #5305

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12734

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18644

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:54Z

Reasoning: If Finau finishes top 5 at the Valero Texas Open, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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