Pair #5302

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4724

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12734

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:54Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events across different tournaments. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -46.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -50.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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