Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SSCH
Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 461303
YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SSCH
Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 171395
YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:54Z
Reasoning: If Scheffler finishes top 5 at the Masters, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A