Pair #53

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-MUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 10181

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

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Rules

If Lorenzo Musetti wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-LMUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4429

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lorenzo Musetti wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:29Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open is winning a Grand Slam, so B implies A. A does not imply B since Musetti could win a different Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -16.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:06:54Z

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