Pair #5299

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 257606

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 171395

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:54Z

Reasoning: If Scheffler finishes top 10 at the Masters, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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