Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SSCH
Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 257606
YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SSCH
Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 171395
YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:54Z
Reasoning: If Scheffler finishes top 10 at the Masters, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A