Pair #5298

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 143639

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 171395

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:54Z

Reasoning: Scheffler could win a major other than the Masters (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship), which would not imply any specific finish at the Masters. And finishing top 20 at the Masters doesn't mean winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -59.55% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -63.83% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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