Pair #5297

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 171395

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:54Z

Reasoning: If Scheffler finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors (including the Masters), he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which is also within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 at the Masters alone doesn't mean top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -97.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -101.25% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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