Pair #5295

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 229863

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 299988

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:33Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at the Masters necessarily means finishing top 20 as well (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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