Pair #5294

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10393

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 229863

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:33Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 does not require winning the Masters specifically — Reed could win the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship instead. And finishing top 10 at the Masters does not mean winning a major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -50.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -54.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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