Pair #5290

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-MKEY

Will Madison Keys win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1512

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Madison Keys wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR02KEYBON-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the Keys vs Bondar : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-04-02T18:00:00Z
Volume: 1548

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Madison Keys wins the Keys vs Bondar professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:33Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a WTA Charleston Round of 16 match. These are separate tournaments with no dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -72.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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