Pair #5289

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 58253

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Madison Keys wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR02KEYBON-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the Keys vs Bondar : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-04-02T18:00:00Z
Volume: 1548

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Madison Keys wins the Keys vs Bondar professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:33Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open and winning a WTA Charleston Round of 16 match are entirely separate tournaments with no logical dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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