Pair #5288

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG

Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3587

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR02PEGCOC-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Pegula vs Cocciaretto : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-04-02T18:00:00Z
Volume: 25314

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins the Pegula vs Cocciaretto professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:33Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a WTA Charleston Round of 16 match. These are separate tournaments with no dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -58.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -62.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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