Pair #5286

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-WSIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 578

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-WSIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Webb Simpson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 404

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:33Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish overall. These are independent outcomes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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