Pair #5284

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-WSIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Webb Simpson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 404

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-WSIM

Webb Simpson to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 601

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:00:33Z

Reasoning: Being named Ryder Cup captain has no logical connection to finishing top 20 in the Valero Texas Open. These are entirely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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