Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR01MOLNAV-NAV
Will Mariano Navone win the Moller vs Navone : Round Of 16 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Mariano Navone
Expiration: 2026-04-01T12:00:00Z
Volume: 13045
YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Mariano Navone wins the Moller vs Navone professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPSETWINNER-26APR01MOLNAV-1-NAV
Will Mariano Navone win set 1 in the Elmer Moller vs Mariano Navone match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Mariano Navone
Expiration: 2026-04-01T12:00:00Z
Volume: 315
YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.7000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Mariano Navone wins set 1 in the Elmer Moller vs Mariano Navone professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:59Z
Reasoning: In tennis, a player can win the match without winning set 1, and winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A