Pair #5282

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR01DARBEL-DAR

Will Luciano Darderi win the Darderi vs Bellucci : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Luciano Darderi
Expiration: 2026-04-01T13:00:00Z
Volume: 16372

YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Luciano Darderi wins the Darderi vs Bellucci professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR01DARBEL-1-DAR

Will Luciano Darderi win set 1 in the Luciano Darderi vs Mattia Bellucci match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Luciano Darderi
Expiration: 2026-04-01T13:00:00Z
Volume: 211

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Luciano Darderi wins set 1 in the Luciano Darderi vs Mattia Bellucci professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:59Z

Reasoning: In tennis, a player can win the match without winning set 1 (e.g., losing the first set then winning the next two). And winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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