Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR01DARBEL-DAR
Will Luciano Darderi win the Darderi vs Bellucci : Round Of 16 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Luciano Darderi
Expiration: 2026-04-01T13:00:00Z
Volume: 16372
YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.7900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Luciano Darderi wins the Darderi vs Bellucci professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPSETWINNER-26APR01DARBEL-1-DAR
Will Luciano Darderi win set 1 in the Luciano Darderi vs Mattia Bellucci match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Luciano Darderi
Expiration: 2026-04-01T13:00:00Z
Volume: 211
YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.7000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Luciano Darderi wins set 1 in the Luciano Darderi vs Mattia Bellucci professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:59Z
Reasoning: In tennis, a player can win the match without winning set 1 (e.g., losing the first set then winning the next two). And winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A