Pair #5275

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-CCRO

Valero Texas Open: Will Charlie Crockett finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Charlie Crockett
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14803

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Charlie Crockett finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CCRO

Valero Texas Open: Will Charlie Crockett make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Charlie Crockett
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3347

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Charlie Crockett has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:59Z

Reasoning: If Charlie Crockett finishes in the top 20, he must have made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 20 overall without surviving the cut. The reverse is not true: making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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