Pair #5268

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JDAH

Valero Texas Open: Will Joel Dahmen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1629

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-JDAH

Will Joel Dahmen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 24051

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:41Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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