Pair #5267

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JDAH

Valero Texas Open: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 677

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JDAH

Valero Texas Open: Will Joel Dahmen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1629

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:41Z

Reasoning: A top 10 finish requires completing all rounds after the cut, so Dahmen must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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