Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-EGRI
Valspar Championship: Will Emiliano Grillo finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Emiliano Grillo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3025
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Emiliano Grillo finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-EGRI
Valspar Championship: Will Emiliano Grillo finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Emiliano Grillo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20068
YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Emiliano Grillo finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:15Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A