Pair #5259

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-JDAH

Will Joel Dahmen win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 27215

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JDAH

Valero Texas Open: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2720

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:22Z

Reasoning: If Joel Dahmen wins the tournament, he necessarily finishes top 20 (a winner finishes 1st, which is within the top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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