Pair #5251

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JVAN

Valero Texas Open: Will John VanDerLaan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: John VanDerLaan
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5164

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If John VanDerLaan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JVAN

Valero Texas Open: Will John VanDerLaan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John VanDerLaan
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 215

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If John VanDerLaan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:22Z

Reasoning: If John VanDerLaan finishes top 10, he necessarily also finishes top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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