Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JVAN
Valero Texas Open: Will John VanDerLaan finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: John VanDerLaan
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5164
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If John VanDerLaan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JVAN
Valero Texas Open: Will John VanDerLaan finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John VanDerLaan
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 215
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If John VanDerLaan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:22Z
Reasoning: If John VanDerLaan finishes top 10, he necessarily also finishes top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A