Pair #5250

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-EVAN

Will Erik Van Rooyen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Erik Van Rooyen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4792

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Erik Van Rooyen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-EVAN

Valero Texas Open: Will Erik Van Rooyen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Erik Van Rooyen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1470

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Erik Van Rooyen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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