Pair #5238

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RCAM

Valero Texas Open: Will Rafael Campos finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rafael Campos
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1270

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rafael Campos finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RCAM

Valero Texas Open: Will Rafael Campos finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rafael Campos
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 503

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rafael Campos finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:26:04Z

Reasoning: If Campos finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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