Pair #521

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-LHOD

Valspar Championship: Will Lee Hodges make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 460

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-LHOD

Will Lee Hodges lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10656

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:15Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could withdraw or miss the cut in subsequent rounds), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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