Pair #5203

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-KVIL

Valero Texas Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1940

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-KVIL

Valero Texas Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6052

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:25:15Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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