Pair #519

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-LHOD

Valspar Championship: Will Lee Hodges finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19026

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lee Hodges finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-LHOD

Valspar Championship: Will Lee Hodges make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 460

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lee Hodges makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:15Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in a tournament, a player must have made the cut. So top 20 implies making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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