Pair #5179

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-BTOD

Valero Texas Open: Will Brendon Todd finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brendon Todd
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3255

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brendon Todd finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-BTOD

Valero Texas Open: Will Brendon Todd finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brendon Todd
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8597

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brendon Todd finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:24:40Z

Reasoning: A top 10 finish necessarily means a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish could be outside the top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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