Pair #5162

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3541

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 292162

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:24:03Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate making the cut (a player could lead R1 but miss the cut after R2), and making the cut does not imply leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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