Pair #5161

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3692

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13800

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:24:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold: finishing top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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