Pair #5160

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13800

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3541

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:24:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 requires having made the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue