Pair #5159

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 292162

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13800

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:24:03Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not imply finishing top 10, and finishing top 10 does not imply leading after Round 1. These are independent outcomes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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