Pair #5157

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19935

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3541

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:24:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires having made the cut to play the final rounds. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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