Pair #5155

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13800

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19935

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:24:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold: finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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