Pair #5153

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 653597

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3541

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:24:03Z

Reasoning: If Smotherman wins the tournament, he must have made the cut — you cannot win without making the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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