Pair #5149

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11208

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan L. Smith is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JSMI

Valero Texas Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3320

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:23:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall has no logical connection to leading after Round 1, and vice versa. No necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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