Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-APUT
Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Putnam finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andrew Putnam
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11915
YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.3500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Andrew Putnam finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-APUT
Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Putnam finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andrew Putnam
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12229
YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Andrew Putnam finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:23:27Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 doesn't guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A