Pair #513

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MROZ

Valspar Championship: Will Marcelo Rozo make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7243

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marcelo Rozo makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MROZ

Valspar Championship: Will Marcelo Rozo finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13470

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marcelo Rozo finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:57Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish, and finishing top 10 does imply making the cut — but wait: top 10 does logically require making the cut. Correcting: KXPGATOP10 implies KXPGAMAKECUT.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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