Pair #5120

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-TOLE

Will Thorbjorn Olesen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18199

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Thorbjorn Olesen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6787

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:23:10Z

Reasoning: Top 10 final finish and Round 1 lead are independent — neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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