Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-TOLE
Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6795
YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TOLE
Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16217
YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:23:10Z
Reasoning: If Olesen finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A