Pair #5117

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6787

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16217

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:23:10Z

Reasoning: If Olesen finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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